THE BIG DAY HAS ARRIVED

*THE CRABBIES GRAND NATIONAL 2014* 

I'd better get my bets on...

Time to see if my research has paid off. Based almost entirely on what the horse looks like, and not focusing their form, the three horses I have picked for the big race are:

(9) BALTHAZAR KING

(1) TIDAL BAY

(4) TRIOLO D'ALENE

All three horses are relatively similar in their conformation, two being bay and one chestnut. Not to big, not to small. Not to compact, not too rangey. They all look as though they are powerful enough to take on the worlds toughest steeplechase without the risk of tiring from carrying too much weighty muscle.

Even if they do not win, I would love it if they all finished or were at least not brought down by other fallers. This would mean that my way of choosing a Grand National winner, based on the horses conformation and not form, could become a valid method for picking a winner for future races.

Wish me luck!

Newbury Racecourse has put together its own guide to a race day, including tips for betting on horses:

NEWBURY GUIDE TO THE RACES PDF

When I had my biggest win at Newbury, it was on a horse called Shangani. I followed my own guide when picking the horse, which obviously proved successful:

The horses previous race history: The horse had taken part in similar races (distance and fences) before, and was slowly improving with each race.

The grade/class: The grade was the same as the previous three races he had done well in.

The ground: The ground was heavy, and this horse had performed well on soft/heavy ground in the past.

The trainer: The trainer was Venetia Williams, who is a soft/heavy ground specialist and is really on form at the moment. One of her other horses had already won earlier in the day.

The jockey: The jockey (Tom Scudamore, who is very experienced) had been asked specially to ride this particular horse on this particular day in this particular race.

The weights: The horse was similar in the weights to how he had been at previous meetings where he had been steadily improving.

The track: This horse was a Newbury track specialist, meaning that Newbury is his favourite course and he tends to do well there.

The odds: He was second favourite all day, until he was seen in the parade ring, and another of Venetia Williams horses had already won, at which point he became favourite.

Other factors: The horse was a good age, looked calm/fit/well in the parade ring, was experienced over these types of jumps, hadn't had too much time off after his previous race and wasn't sporting any new headgear.

PaddyPower have sent me their 2014 guide to the Cheltenham Festival through the post. It gives information about every race and tips based on previous winner's form:

On Saturday 1st March I went to the Newbury Races. I put a few bets on, following my own tips I wrote a few posts ago, and ended up breaking even. I may not have made any money, but at least I beat the bookies!

Racecard and ticket:

A winning ticket:

WHAT TO LOOK FOR WHEN BETTING ON A HORSE:

There are certain things a punter needs to know when betting on a horse:

The horses previous race history: This allows the punter to see what kind of races the horse has taken part in before (taking in to account flat/jumps/trip) and where it placed to see if it is a suitable candidate to win.

The grade/class: There would be no point on betting on a horse in a higher grade race just because its won at lower grades before. The step up might be too much for it to handle.

The ground: Some horses prefer good ground, others prefer soft, and some prefer artificial surface. Just because a horse has won on good/firm ground before does not mean it will win on soft/heavy.

The trainer: A lot of trainers relish particular ground. for example, Venetia Williams' horses often do well on soft/heavy ground over the winter, but will sometimes struggle on better ground in the summer. Some will also train horses more successfully to chase rather than hurdle and vice versa, and some trainer's horses will be better at staying than others.

The jockey: Punters will often have a favourite jockey who they trust to make the most of their horse. Just because a less experienced jockey is riding a good horse, it does not guarantee a win if the jockey has not got the skill needed. Alternatively, an experienced jockey may be able to squeeze more out of an ordinary horse than others.

The weights: In some races the horses are handicapped. For example, if a horse comes into a winning streak, the handicapper will add weight to the horse to make the race more fair. A horse may have won easily in its previous races, but if it has had 7lb added by the handicapper, it might stuggle to be on the same form the next time.

The track: Tracks/courses vary significantly with some travelling clockwise/anticlockwise, some have steep ascents/descents and others have particularly sharp corners. A horse will often have a favourite track and a horse that travels well at one may not enjoy another.

The odds: The odds/SP on a horse can tell you a lot about the horses chance of winning. Officially, the shorter the odds, the more chance the horse has of winning, however there are so many other factors as shown above that betting based just on the official odds needs to be done with caution.

Other factors: There are many other factors that can affect the outcome of a race. The horses age, experience over jumps, new headgear, fitness, time off for injury etc. This means that betting on a horse is often more down to luck than judgement.

I am going to the Newbury charity race day on Saturday March 1st. I am hoping this will give me a better understanding of how the races work, as well as an insight into what a punter wants when it comes to betting information.

There are two types of jumps in the world of National Hunt Racing: Hurdles and Steeplechase fences.

Hurdles are relatively small and are usually the jumps that young or inexperienced horses start over:

The next size up are steeplechase fences, which are usually for more experienced horses:

There are even bigger, wider steeplechase fences that are used for more experienced jump horses and jockeys:

And finally, there are enormous steeplechase fences which are covered with up to 3 foot of spruce to make them seem even bigger. These fences are reserved for the best and most experienced horses and jockeys who are able to jump into the Grand National:

The BBC ran an article in 2008 about Flat racing vs National Hunt racing. They asked the two leading jockeys from each sport respectively to give their opinions:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7436301.stm

Love The Races also ran a similar article  called Flat vs Jumps:

http://www.lovetheraces.com/features/flat-vs-jumps/

"Good jumpers: Jumpers come from a variety of backgrounds but are traditionally more robust types, bred to start over small jumps (hurdles) and eventually graduating to the larger steeplechase fences. They are generally expected to peak from between seven and 10 years of age and compete over longer distances, starting from two miles but stretching as far as four and a half miles in races such as the Grand National at Aintree (Saturday 6th April). As they tend to carry on for longer than Flat horses, jumpers are invariably neutered (or gelded) to keep their minds on the job in hand."

"Flat horses: Flat racing, on the other hand, is for a sharper, more precocious individual and they begin their racing careers at the age of two. There is more prestige on the Flat and the very best, like a Derby winner, become so valuable they can be retired for breeding as early as at three years of age. These horses can earn up to £100,000-a-time for coverings (matings)! It's even been estimated that the great Frankel could command a fee at stud of a whopping £200,000! Speed is of the essence, with the shortest races held at five furlongs (1km), but many will run over further than two miles and can also try their hand at jumping."

This video from Horse Racing Ireland gives an insight into what makes a winning racehorse:

And this article from Love the Races shows what leading female jockey Hayley Turner personally looks for in a horse:

http://www.lovetheraces.com/new-to-racing-/what-to-look-for-in-a-superstar-racehorse/

1. The body "I like to see a good broad chest, and with a horse’s back end you want to see the muscle. If you are looking at two-year-olds that haven’t fully matured, their hind quarters are always higher than at the front end. That is a sign of weakness. They will level out in time.” 

2. A Gleaming Coat "This is an important one. If they’ve got the shine – a good skin, a good coat – that’s the health inside them coming out. You wouldn’t want them to be too woolly at this time of the year.” 

3. Sweating "It’s not unusual if a horse is sweating on its neck, especially on a warm day. But if they’ve got sweat dripping off them, you wouldn’t want that – boiling over before a race. That’s a sign the horse is overwhelmed by the whole atmosphere." 

4. The Head "The size of a head is only relevant if they’rein a photo-finish! The eyes want to be alert.Big ears are a sign of a genuine horse, and big nostrils are always a good thing (to get lots of air into the lungs).” 

A Grand National Legend: Red Rum

At the 1973 Grand National, Red Rum beat the Australian chaser Crisp, who was carrying 23 pounds more, in a new record time of nine minutes, 1.9 seconds. Crisp led the field virtually all the way in that year's National in which he was 30 lengths clear, and at the last fence was 15 lengths clear of Red Rum, his nearest pursuer. Red Rum and jockey Brian Fletcher, however, made up the ground on the final stretch and, two strides from the finishing post, pipped the tiring Crisp to win by three-quarters of a length in what is often considered one of the greatest Grand Nationals in history. Crisp's jockey Richard Pitman later stated: "I still dream about that race, of Crisp running so strongly and jumping so fearlessly, and then the sound of Red Rum's hooves as he got closer and closer at the end." He added: "I felt as though I was tied to a railway line with an express train thundering up and being unable to jump out of the way." A year later, Red Rum retained his title at the 1974 National, carrying 12 stone.

Red Rum came second in 1975 and 1976; Tommy Stack replaced Fletcher as jockey in the latter race after Fletcher angered trainer Ginger McCain by telling the press the horse no longer felt right after a defeat in a race away from Aintree. Again, Red Rum saved his best for Aintree but was held off by Rag Trade. The following year, Stack rode the 12-year-old Red Rum to his record third Grand National triumph, in what is regarded as one of the greatest moments in horse racing history.

A magazine article about what makes a good stayer:

The Speed Gene

The Equinome scientists have discovered that the genetic sequencing at a particular point of the myostatin gene is the principal factor in determining optimal distance for an individual racing thoroughbred.  It works like this.  There are two different variations of the myostatin gene at that particular point – C for speed and T for stamina.  As an individual carries two copies of each genetic sequence, there are 3 possible genetic possibilities (CC, CT, or TT) with each of these genetic combinations having an optimum racing distance.  CC would be a speedy, sprint type (best suited to distance s of 5 furlongs to a mile), CT would be a fast middle-distance type individual (performing well over 7 as a juvenile, but training on to 12 furlongs at three and beyond) and TT would indicate a staying type (10 furlongs and beyond).

A history of the steeplechase:

The steeplechase originated in Ireland in the 18th century as an analogue to cross-country thoroughbred horse races which went from church steeple to church steeple, hence "steeplechase". Most of the earlier steeplechases were contested cross-country rather than on a track, and resembled English cross country as it exists today. The first recorded steeplechase over a prepared track with fences was run at Bedford in 1810, although a race had been run at Newmarket in 1794 over a mile with five-foot bars every quarter mile. The first recognised English National Steeplechase took place on Monday 8 March 1830. The 4-mile (6.4 km) race, organised by Thomas Coleman of St Albans, was run from Bury Orchard, Harlington in Bedfordshire to the Obelisk in Wrest Park, Bedfordshire.

A map of the Grand National course at Aintree:

Channel 4 also did a programme about dissecting a racehorse from their 'Inside Natures Giants' series. The programme focussed on the physical strains a thoroughbred experiences when it is racing, the breeding process and gave a simple guide to how a racehorses body works.

Inside Natures Giants: Racehorse

There was a programme made by channel 4 last year called 'How to Win the Grand National' which was broadcast the day before the big race.

It focussed on training, genes, conformation, training and the jockey and gave a great insight into what goes into making a Grand National winning horse.

How to Win the Grand National

The last 14 winners of the grand national and their details: